Final Five Breakdown
by Drew, the Big Brother Cynic
I’m currently in the midst of a rather hasty move to Pennsylvania on four days of notice, so this one is going to be short
and sweet. Here’s a breakdown of the five remaining contestants and their chances of winning (written before nominations, for
With Lane as Head of Household, Britney is probably the “replacement nominee” if Ragan or the pawn (Enzo?) wins POV. If she
even survives this week (which means Ragan went home in all likelihood), she will essentially be playing 3-on-1 for both HoH
Should Britney advance to the final two, she is definitely my pick to win it all. The odds she will have to overcome are
staggering. In my estimation, she has Kathy’s vote as well as Lane’s (if he is eliminated). She probably will not have
Me&Brendon’s votes under any circumstances, but if the voting come downs to gameplay, she will win Big Brother 12.
Enzo will probably make it to the final two, because he doesn’t have a prayer to win it right now. Unless he makes serious
moves over the next couple of weeks, he could go to the finals without a single competition victory. Everybody else in the
house should be trying to carry him along at this point, because I don’t see a single juror voting for him to win.
Hayden has the strongest résumé of the remaining Brigade members, which is a positive if he makes it to the final two but a
serious negative until then. It seems as if he and Lane may have a final two agreement with Enzo as the third wheel, but I
would get rid of him ASAP.
Lane has the obvious advantage of already being in the final four. If he can eliminate Ragan and escape without having to
jeopardize his alliance with Britney, he will have some sort of connection to everybody in the house. This could turn him
into a target, but in my estimation he will be safe next week unless the POV causes a “forced backdoor” (which is, in fact, as
uncomfortable as it sounds).
The obvious underdog, Ragan is the target this week and probably next week if he survives (and doesn’t win the ensuing HoH).
Assuming Britney goes home if he doesn’t, he will playing 3-on-1 all week. Best bet is to play his ass off in
competitions, make nice-nice with the houseguests in the meantime, and hope he gets miracled into the final two. Like
Britney, his current odds mean that he will probably win if he somehow gets to the finals.
Misspeak of the Week:
More of a “mishear” or “misunderstand” than a “misspeak”, but honors this week go to Mrs. Les Moonves herself, Julie Chen.
In his exit interview, Matt called Rachel a “succubus”, which Julie seemed to find inappropriate.
I’ve got two theories: a.) Julie heard “sucky bitch” or b.) she has no idea what “succubus” means. Either way, great job
As I alluded to earlier, it seems like Britney or Ragan will be gone this week. Then the survivor will be playing 3-on-1
against the Brigade next week for both the Head of Household and Power of Veto. If a situation is forced where a Brigade
member has to go, I’m picking Hayden.
That’s all for this week. Next week doesn’t look much better as far as free time is concerned, but I promise to at least drop
in and get my predictions on the record (so we can all laugh together when I’m terribly incorrect). I promise to be back at
full strength by the finale.